Sevilla vs Juventus Preview, Odds, Predictions (May 18)

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May 18, 2023
May 18, 2023

Initial Thoughts

Sevilla and Juventus have both enjoyed a late season resurgence domestically and know a Europa League trophy would put a positive spin on an otherwise forgettable 2022/23 campaign.

While Juve are a team of superstars, Sevilla have a special relationship with this competition and their home stadium has often played a starring role in the club’s European success.

The Narrative

After finishing joint bottom in Champions League Group H with five defeats in six matches, Juventus were demoted to the Europa League where they met Ligue 1 side Nantes in the first knockout round.

Since then the Old Lady of Turin has been looking strong in Europe’s second tier competition, conceding only once in Round of 16 and quarter-final victories against SC Freiberg and Sport Lisbon respectively.

Juve’s domestic form has greatly improved of late as well, with Massimiliano Allegri’s side arriving in tonight’s matchup on a four game unbeaten run in Serie A.

After a 1-1 draw away to Bologna at the end of last month, Juventus have racked up three straight wins against Lecce, Atalanta and Cremonese, conceding only once across 270 minutes of football.

Sevilla also crashed out of the Champions League group stage and for a good part of the season their domestic form was crashing as well.

The Spanish side were 14th in the league when José Luis Mendilibar became their third manager of the season, having spent five weeks in the drop zone earlier in the campaign.

But Mendilibar has done more than steady the ship since then, guiding Sevilla to six wins in their eight matches in the the league and masterminding an incredible Europa League comeback against Manchester United in the last round.

2-0 down to the Red Devils at Old Trafford, Sevilla scored two goals in the last 6 minutes to draw level, and then blew United off the park in a 3-0 win at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium to book a place in the semis.

Nuts and Bolts

While Juventus are certainly the better side on paper, Sevilla are a different beast in the Europa League - as Man United found out to their cost in the last round.

Mendilibar’s side have more Europa League trophies than any other team in the competition’s history (six), but the key stat here is Sevilla’s home stadium’s role in the club continental success.

The Spanish side has never lost a second leg knockout tie at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium, and their three such fixtures in this campaign have produced an aggregate score line of nine goals to nil.

On top of that, Sevilla would 1-0 up heading into tonight’s tie were it not for Federico Gatti’s 97th minute equalizer at the Allianz Stadium last week

It’s hard to bet against the Spanish side in this matchup, with a seventh Europa League title looking like a distinct possibility this season.

Homestand Picks

All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets

Sevilla Full Time (+145)

Mendilibar’s side were 1-0 up until the 97th minute of the first leg, so in the chaotic cauldron of  the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium, these plus money odds offer excellent value for a Sevilla full time win.

Over 2.5 goals (+120)

Sevilla have scored two or more goals in each of their last three home fixtures in Europe, while Juve have found the net in all of their knockout matches on the road.