Newcastle v Brighton Preview, Odds, Predictions (May 17)

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May 18, 2023
May 18, 2023

Initial Thoughts

Two over-achieving sides compete for different European places in this mid-week Premier League matchup. Newcastle’s dip in form has seen a top four finish suddenly thrown into doubt, while Brighton effectively decided the title last weekend and will continue their push for a first ever top six finish.

The Narrative

For much of the second half of the season the Magpies have been sitting pretty in the Champions League places, jockeying with Man United for 3rd or 4th position but with a points advantage and games in hand on the chasing pack below.

That cushion has eroded in recent weeks though, giving Eddie Howe’s side plenty to do with three games left to play.

Newcastle dropped important points in their last two Premiership outings - losing 2-0 to Arsenal at home at the start of the month and then sharing the points at Elland Rd in a dramatic 2-2 draw against Leeds last weekend.

The Magpies needed two Callum Wilson penalties to come away with a point against Big Sam’s Peacocks, and Newcastle now find themselves level on points with fourth place Man United and with Liverpool just one point behind having played one extra game.

To say this a must win game is no overstatement then as Howe’s side aim to secure Champions League football for the first time since the 2002/03 season.

Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton are also chasing European glory in their own hunt for a first ever top six finish in the league.

The Seagull’s form has been somewhat erratic since April, with heavy defeats such as the 3-1 loss away to Nottingham Forest immediately followed up with emphatic wins like the 6-0 defeat at home to Wolves.

After beating Man United 1-0 at the Amex Stadium, De Zerbi’s men were blown off the field in front of their home fans in a 5-1 defeat to Everton.

But last weekend Brighton returned to winning ways - and effectively handed the title to Man City - in a stunning 3-0 victory over Arsenal at the Emirates.

Nuts and Bolts

It’s anyone’s guess as to whether Brighton will pick up where they left off at St James's Park, or struggle away from home as they’ve done so often in the last two months.

If you discount that 5-1 loss to Everton earlier this month, the aggregate scoreline for Brighton’s last three matches is 10-0 in the Seagull’s favor.

So that should bode well for the South Coast side considering Newcastle have managed just a single clean sheet in their last 16 Premier League Matches.

The honors were shared when these sides last met in a 0-0 draw at the start of the season, but Brighton have lost two of their last four matches on the road while the Magpies have suffered just a single home defeat since early March.

With some much on the line for both sides, this could turn into a cagey affair, so don’t be surprised to see another low scoring draw in this matchup tonight.

Homestand Picks

All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets

Draw (+295)

A loss for either side could have massive implications on their European ambitions next season, so Howe and De Zerbi will not be taking any chances at the business end of the campaign.

Both Teams to Score (-177)

We’re very likely to see goals though, with the Magpies without a clean sheet since in nine matches and Brighton scoring 11 in their last four outings.