Napoli v AC Milan UCL Quarter Final: Preview, Odds, Predictions (April 18)
Initial Thoughts
Napoli have struggled without injured striker Victor Osimhen, while AC Milan have beaten the Serie A leaders twice in the last three weeks. With this Champions League quarter final delicately balanced at 1-0 from the first leg, are Napoli back in the driver’s seat with Osimhen likely to start on Tuesday night?
The Narrative
After their total domination in the Group Stage, Napoli are still the highest scoring team in the Champions League this season. But after Victor Osimhen’s injury last month, the Azzurri have failed to find the net in three of their last four outings.
In the 21 matches in all competitions since October last year, Napoli have won each of the 16 games in which Oshimen either scored or assisted. They’ve managed to win only a single game without an Osimhen goal in that time frame, so it’s fair to say that Napoli’s success this season has rested significantly on the Nigerian stiker’s shoulders.
The hitman finally returned to action on Sunday, coming off the bench for a 15 minute cameo against Verona. Spaletti’s side looked better right away, and Osimhen could have won if for the home side when his powerful drive rattled against the crossbar.
But the eventual 0-0 scoreline means Napoli have won only one of their last four matches. And while their 14 point lead in Serie A looks unassailable with 8 matches left to play, Napoli’s Champions League campaign now rests on a knife edge after suffering a 1-0 home defeat to AC Milan last week.
That win means Milan have overcome Napoli twice in the past month - accounting for almost 50% of the Azzurri's defeats in all competitions this season.
Nuts and Bolts
In Serie A, AC Milan recorded a 4-0 away win against Napoli back in early April, which was one of only two home defeats for Spaletti’s side this season. And on top of that, Milan have come out on top in each of their last three visits to Naples.
What’s interesting to note here though, is that Milan’s winning form against the Serie A leaders stands in stark contrast to their overall performance of late.
That 4-0 win in Naples was Stefano Pioli’s side's only domestic win since February and the only time Milan have scored more than two goals since October last year.
Those results would also seem to rest heavily on the absence of Victor Osimhen, and with the Nigerian hitman likely to start on Tuesday, could fortunes swing back in Napoli’s favour in the second leg?
The Estadio Diego Armando Maradona has also been a fortress in the Champions League this season, with Napoli winning each of their four UCL home games this season, and finding the net at least three times in each of those wins.
Homestand Picks
All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets
Milan successfully defended a 1-0 lead against Tottenham in the last round, which was also an away fixture. But with Osimhen back in the starting lineup we’re backing Napoli to fight their way back into this tie and book their place in a first ever Champions League semi-final.
Victor Osimhen first goalscorer (+275)
The Nigerian hit the bar within minutes of coming off the bench on the weekend. Back in the starting lineup and back at the Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Osimhen is great value to open the scoring on Tuesday.
