Borussia Dortmund vs. Mainz 05 Preview, Odds, Predictions (May 27)

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May 26, 2023
May 26, 2023

Initial Thoughts

Borussia Dortmund welcome Mainz 05 to Westfalenstadion on Saturday on the cusp of glory. But only three points will be enough to finally dethrone Bayern Munich and secure a first Bundesliga title for a decade. 

The Narrative

It’s been a season of two halves for Borussia Dortmund, with vastly different storylines on either side of the World Cup break.

Edin Terzic’s side were in sixth place when the Bundesliga went on hiatus in November, having lost six of their opening 15 matches.

The lackluster start to the season saw Dortmund nine points short of league leaders Bayern, who looked on course to secure an 11th consecutive title in the German top flight.

But it's been a completely different story post-Qatar, with Dortmund losing just a single game in 2023 and winning 14 of their last 18 in the Bundesliga.

And last weekend a 3-0 victory away to FC Augsburg saw BVB climb into the top spot after two late penalties gave RB Leipzig a 3-1 win over Bayern at the Allianz Arena.

A win against Mainz 05 on saturday will make Edin Terzic the first BVB manager since Jurgen Klopp to claim the league title, and it would represent a crushing blow to both Bayern and Thomas Tuchel.

The defending champions were still top of the table and competing for both the Champions League and German Cup when Julian Nagelsmann was fired back in March.

Nuts & Bolts

Dortmund have come close to lifting the title in recent years, especially during the 2018/19 campaign when Nico Kovac’s BVB side finished just two points short of Bayern on the final day of the season.

But the current opportunity couldn't be coming at a better time, or in a better location, for Edin Terzic’s high-flying team.

Unbeaten in their last seven matches, Dortmund have won their last three games by an aggregate scoreline of 14-2.

On top of that, BVB’s home form has been nothing short of phenomenal, with seven straight wins in front of the yellow wall and only two points dropped at the Westfalenstadion all season.

It’s hard to see how Bellingham and co won’t get this job done then, especially as they beat Mainz 2-1 when these sides last met at the MEWA Arena earlier in the season.

Mainz have lost each of their last four games on the bounce, but prior to that pulled off a shock 3-1 victory away to Bayern Munich last month. 

Bo Svensson’s side secured that win with just 25% possession and only four shots on target, so Edin Terzic won't be taking anything for granted heading into Saturday’s game.

Dortmund will aim to start strong and control the play throughout, in what is likely to be their most important home fixture in a decade.

Homestand Picks

All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets

Parlay: Borussia Dortmund & Over 3.5 goals & Jude Bellingham Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+135)

We’re rolling together a three-legged parlay to find the value here, and this is the reasoning behind it: 

  • Dortmund have won each of their last seven at home and have dropped only two points there all season. 
  • BVB have scored 23 times in their last five matches at home. 
  • And with Jude Bellingham potentially playing his final game in black and yellow, we’re backing him to have at least one attempt on target in the 90s minutes.